Service through data analysis and pandemic management

In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, Fr. Austriaco wrote the paper the “Mobility-guided Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Metro Manila”, patterned after Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s model, together with Assoc. Prof. Bernhard Egwolf, Dr. rer. nat. of the Department of Mathematics and Physics and Research Center for Natural and Applied Sciences to examine the trends and the dynamics of the pandemic in the National Capital Region.

After publishing the said model, he was invited to join the OCTA Research Team, a private polling, research, and consultation firm that sends out COVID-19 pandemic-related advisories. Fr. Austriaco, Dr. Guido David, and political scientist Ranjit S. Rye are its core members.

One of fr. Austriaco’s service highlights was on July 28, 2021, just when the Delta variant entered the country. He immediately urged the national government for a swift lockdown since the said variant is the most “aggressive” to date, leaving a high death toll in India in April 2021.

As a result, according to fr. Austriaco, the early lockdown slowed down the viral transmission on ground that saved the lives of Filipinos and the action also paved an economically viable fourth quarter in 2021, which the Filipinos enjoyed after experiencing lockdown fatigue.

“My whole life prior to this was ‘science for science sake’, and now I came to understand that science can be brought to service—for public service in this case–to help the Filipino people,” he said.

Developing a shelf-stable and efficacious vaccine for the Filipino people

Project Pag-asa, or the DominiVax project, is a brainchild of fr. Austriaco, and it aims to make the vaccine accessible to the Filipinos. The vaccine at works is a genetically engineered human probiotic yeast, Saccharomyces boulardii, that replicates the SARS-CoV2 spike protein.

He noted that if yeast, which has a 3-5 days life span in the body when ingested, can deliver antibodies to the stomach, why not deploy antigens that prompt the human immune system to build immunity, he argued.

Fr. Austriaco was recently honored with DOST-Philippine Council for Health Research Development (PCHRD) 2022 Short Term Balik Scientist. Through the said program, Filipino scientists, technologists, and experts are invited to return to their country to share their expertise to promote scientific, agro-industrial, and economic development.

At present, fr. Austriaco teaches at Department of Biological Sciences and at the Faculty of Sacred Theology.

Dr. Kanapi, the Thomasian Geneticist

Dean Emerita Carmen G. Kanapi is considered as the first Filipina to earn a doctorate degree (PhD) with a specialization in Genetics, which she earned in the University of Texas. She specialized in the genetics of the fruit fly Drosophila spp.

The renowned Geneticist served as Dean of the College of Science from 1982 to 1996, and is its first female leader. She also served as the Dean of the UST Graduate School.

“[Kanapi] is a trailblazing servant leader; a woman of science; and an exemplar of the Thomasian Core values of Competence, Commitment, and Compassion,” said former Science Dean Prof. John Donnie A. Ramos, PhD in his tribute.

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Challenges and opportunities to Catholic higher educational institutions in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic

In her keynote lecture, Dr. Isabel Capeloa Gil, President of the International Federation of Catholic Universities, mentioned that the medical schools and research centers belonging to the Catholic institutions were working on a wide array of solutions to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the trials to global exchange, according to Gil, the networks and the global exchange models must still proceed.听

The educational institutions around the world have maximized the use of technology when the COVID-19 pandemic halted the face-to-face transactions. Likewise, Gil said the supplemental role of technology in the traditional in-person instruction will stay, thus underscoring the importance of embracing the new, ever-evolving, and innovative practices in teaching, which sprung from limitations of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“What started as a crisis is now paving way to a more nimble, flexible, and at times less formal instruction framework. We can see how our friends, students, and teachers live through their screens, perhaps enabling also new forms of sociality,” Gil said.

Moreover, Gil urged the Catholic universities to grab the opportunity to focus their strategies and development on impact-driven and socially sustainable goals. “The opportunity to renew traditional pedagogy and strengthen collaborative learning models must be embraced. An implementation of education-friendly technology affords inclusion and enhances cooperation,” Gil said.

Gil is currently the Rector of the Catholic University of Portugal (UCP) and the President of the International Federation of Catholic Universities. She is a full professor of Culture Studies at the UCP – School of Human Sciences.

Sharing the best practices during the pandemic

During the morning plenary sessions of day one, the speakers shared their respective institutions’ best practices during the health crisis, specifically pertaining to teaching and learning, wellness of stakeholders, and financial viability.

On behalf of the University, UST Vice-Rector for Academic Affairs Prof. Cheryl R. Peralta, DrPH, PTRP spoke about the University’s implementation of the enriched virtual mode of instruction (EVM) and how the principles of flexibility, accessibility, and dialogue guided the top university officials and administrators in creating decisions, which kept the Thomasian-brand of education living in these tumultuous times.

“At this time of pandemic, there is much value in cooperation, teamwork, and collaboration to achieve a common purpose. For a big and comprehensive institution like the 探花精选, synergy among its 22 degree-granting units is crucial for implementing plans and strategies to address concerns,” Peralta said.

On behalf St. Paul Institute-Cambodia, Director, Mr. Phon Sophal talked about ensuring the wellness of their stakeholders, as well as their institution’s charitable initiatives in providing their students with equipment. “In addressing wellness during the pandemic, St. Paul Institute tried hard to contact individually to students to know how St. Paul Institute can help them. For students who are really poor, we allowed them to borrow laptops and tablets to help them in online learning,” Sophal said.

Lastly, 探花精选 – Legazpi, Philippines’s Vice-President for Finance and Administration, Fr. Edwin Lao, O.P., spoke about financial sustainability during the pandemic. “On financial sustainability for development strategies, UST-Legazpi adopts differentiation, focus, and cost. There are used not in an exclusive way,” fr. Lao said.

“We grounded these on the principles and values of fiscal discipline and excellence. There were arrived at by conscientiously applying the major functions of financial management and using the management tools of analysis,” fr. Lao said.

On research

In the afternoon plenary sessions, three scholars presented updates on their work to show how research has thrived even during the pandemic.

Australian Catholic University’s Professor Ester Cerin spoke lengthily about how the physical environment, especially in urban cities, impacted brain functioning and development. “What we need to try to create is a built environment that promotes actual interaction with people, rather than spending a lot of time on the screen and communicating with people through social media,” Cerin said.

“The more opportunities you have for things to do in the environment, the less likely you are to actually engage substantial screen time, which has a negative impact on health,” Cerin noted.

Assumption University’s Dean Marissa Chantamas emphasized the need for audiences to include sustainability as a factor in their consumption. “Sustainability is trying to change the attitudes and behaviors of consumers because traditionally we do not think about sustainability in our consumption. Aligning sustainability with profitability is the long-term [solution],” Chantamas said.

“Being caring to the environment, to society is part of the cost that they [companies] cannot cut. It is thus important for customers to support companies that are promoting sustainability. If we can do that, it’s a win-win for all,” Chantamas said.

UST Department of Biological Sciences Visiting Professor Rev. fr. Nicanor Pier Giorgio Austriaco, O.P., PhD, SThD noted the importance of getting vaccinated as a way to achieve herd immunity, leading to the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. “We have administered 6.6 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses to date. No other vaccine has been administered this much in history. Side effects are incredibly rare. The effectiveness of these vaccines substantially outweigh their risks,” fr. Austriaco said.

Moreover, he gave updates on the yeast-based oral Covid-19 vaccine currently being developed by UST researchers and scholars from the Providence College, USA.” We are working to develop a shelf-stable, safe vaccine that you can store for two years. The proposed name is of the yeast-based oral-vaccine is DominiVax and is part of Project Pagasa,” fr. Austriaco said.

Watch the Day 1 (October 14, 2021) of the ASEACU webinar:

On internationalization

During the plenary sessions of day two, three internationalization experts from the Philippines, Australia, and Macau shared how internationalization can be done in different university contexts.

Director of the UST Office of International Relations and Programs Prof. Lilian Sison, PhD shared the importance of blending high-quality online learning to internationalization in the post-COVID-19 world. “Our primary purpose is to maintain active contact with key international partners to redesign cooperation for faculty and student exchanges, transnational education, and transnational research,” Sison said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Kirk Doyle of the Australian Catholic University said their institution will focus on injecting innovation into their approach, creating diversification in the breadth and quality of offerings, and as well as delivering an authentic digitalized global experience that moves beyond virtual replacements. “We need to recover, retain, and return international students; build sustainable and diversified international enrolment sources; and innovate and adapt learning abroad,” Doyle said.

Lastly, Prof. Alvaro Barbosa shared how small universities can be sustainable through internationalization and research initiatives. “At the heart of any change or transformation in the economy is education. The government [of Macau] realized that more investment was necessary for higher education,” Barbosa said.

“We need to make sure future blended activities can be sustained over time and not only [be] experiments to prove we can do it.” he said.

Capping the second day of the webinar, an exclusive workshop was held for the internationalization officials. The internationalization workshop was facilitated by Mr. Glen Chatelier, Director of the Assumption University – Bangkok, Thailand Office of International Affairs.

Watch the Day 2 (October 15, 2021) of the ASEACU webinar:

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In their July 14, 2020 report that covered the latter half of June 2020 until July 12, Austriaco and Egwolf disclosed that the surge in NCR cases is happening in this 鈥渦nknown city鈥� category, and 鈥渟tatistically, this cannot be explained by random clerical or encoding errors.鈥� The scientists warn that 鈥渨ithout proper geographical identification of positive cases, it will be difficult for public health authorities to properly understand the extent of the surge and to control the pandemic through contact tracing, tracking, and isolation.鈥�

The report noted that with increased cases came increased positivity rate, at 10-12%, way above the World Health Organization-prescribed 5% to indicate successful containment of the virus鈥� spread. Hospitalization rate also spiked, but the disparity in the rate of use of ventilators points to the rise in mild cases and the contraction of the disease in the younger and less-vulnerable demographic. 

Austriaco and Egwolf, acknowledging the presence of a 鈥渞eal surge in the pandemic鈥� in the NCR, said that this is best appreciated in the fact that several component cities are exceeding the 70% 鈥淒anger鈥� occupancy limit that DOH set. This limit, measured by the occupancy of COVID-19 beds, is now exceeded by 11 cities and municipalities of NCR, namely Makati, Las Pi帽as, Quezon City, Valenzuela, Pateros, Manila, Mandaluyong, Malabon, Navotas, Taguig, and Muntinlupa.

Underscoring the need for contact tracing, tracking, and isolation, Austriaco and Egwolf recommended the stricter enforcement by the DOH of public health reporting policies to 鈥渓ower the number of 鈥榰nknown鈥� positive cases that lack a geographical identifier.鈥� For areas that have reported cases, the timely enactment of lockdowns is crucial, an effort that 鈥渢he national government [must] properly supervise.鈥� If targeted lockdowns are not enforce properly, a return to ECQ or MECQ is not unlikely for NCR, the scientists warned.

Balancing the concerns of public health safety and economics, Austriaco and Egwolf reiterated their call for zoned and targeted lockdowns, especially with the rise in cases among younger working adults. Such targeted lockdowns must last for a minimum of two weeks 鈥渢o allow asymptomatic carriers to become non-infectious.鈥�

Finally, given the acceleration of cases in NCR, Austriaco and Egwolf warned against the movement of locally stranded individuals and returning OFWs from NCR to the provinces 鈥渦ntil the current surge in the pandemic has been brought under control.鈥� For provinces accepting LSIs and returning OFWs, the scientists recommended a non-negotiable 14-day quarantine regardless of the individual鈥檚 testing results from NCR. These are recommended to avoid overwhelming the health care systems in provinces.

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Adapting the DELPHI model from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Egwolf and Austriaco studied available data on the National Capital Region from the Department of Health鈥檚 issuances and offered the following observations:

ECQ helped cushion COVID-19 impact on NCR

The Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) 鈥渁ppears to have limited the impact of the pandemic in Metro Manila by significantly lowering the total number of COVID-19 cases and the total number of deaths.鈥� Comparing Metro Manila and New York City, which implemented lockdowns five days apart, the Metro Manila lockdown can be considered more effective in terms of saving thousands of lives, with 621 total deaths in NCR compared to the 16,232 deaths in New York City.

Flattening the first curve?

While the curve seems to be flattening with the gradual decline of cases from the peak in early May, the ECQ is still 鈥渟truggling to suppress the pandemic, i.e., to drive the number of infected cases down to zero. At this rate, the model predicts that the total number of cases in Metro Manila will continue to increase gradually and will not plateau for many months, though the forecasted number of active cases will also be decreasing.鈥� Should ECQ be maintained, Egwolf and Austriaco predicted, the number of active COVID-19 cases 鈥渨ill not fall below 1,000 cases until early September 2020.鈥�

Comparing NCR cities

The study also found that Makati, Mandaluyong, and Para帽aque have been more successful in suppressing the community spread of COVID-19 than Manila and Quezon City. 鈥淚t is not clear why the ECQ has not been as effective in both the City of Manila and Quezon City as it has been in their neighboring municipalities.鈥� The two researchers suggested increased efforts in these two cities by public health authorities.

What happens if we shift to GCQ?

Should GCQ be implemented on June 1, the forecasted numbers of infected cases and deaths in NCR may increase, but this can be 鈥渙ffset with a rigorous tracking, testing, and tracing program that seeks to limit community spread by breaking chains of viral transmission.鈥� Egwolf and Austriaco recommend that 鈥渢hat tracking, testing, and tracing programs in Metro Manila focus their efforts on limiting the impact of superspreading events (SSEs) which are associated with both explosive growth early in an outbreak and sustained transmission in later stages.鈥�

How much do we test and trace?

On the issues of testing and tracing, Egwolf and Austriaco cited the work of Harvard University scholars in proposing the ratio of tests and contact tracing per COVID-19 death per day. With the May 22, 2020 seven-day running average of six COVID-19 deaths in NCR per day, the NCR will need a testing capacity of 15,000 tests per day, complemented by 1,800 contact tracers working in call centers. These combined efforts will help curb the pandemic, and the capacities must respond to the severity of the pandemic in each area.

On the issue of testing, the researchers propose the adoption of mobile COVID-19 testing facilities, such as the one being developed by the UST College of Science and Faculty of Engineering, which may help increase the number of tests conducted in the different LGUs.

The figures and explanations of the study can be accessed via this . Meanwhile, the full paper, entitled 鈥淢obility-Guided Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Metro Manila,鈥� is currently under review for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

Egwolf is a researcher of the Research Center for Natural and Applied Sciences and teaches Physics in the College of Science. Meanwhile, Austriaco is a fellow of the Center for Religious Studies and Ethics. He is also a Professor of Biology and of Theology at Providence College, Rhode Island.

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