In their July 14, 2020 report that covered the latter half of June 2020 until July 12, Austriaco and Egwolf disclosed that the surge in NCR cases is happening in this 鈥渦nknown city鈥� category, and 鈥渟tatistically, this cannot be explained by random clerical or encoding errors.鈥� The scientists warn that 鈥渨ithout proper geographical identification of positive cases, it will be difficult for public health authorities to properly understand the extent of the surge and to control the pandemic through contact tracing, tracking, and isolation.鈥�

The report noted that with increased cases came increased positivity rate, at 10-12%, way above the World Health Organization-prescribed 5% to indicate successful containment of the virus鈥� spread. Hospitalization rate also spiked, but the disparity in the rate of use of ventilators points to the rise in mild cases and the contraction of the disease in the younger and less-vulnerable demographic. 

Austriaco and Egwolf, acknowledging the presence of a 鈥渞eal surge in the pandemic鈥� in the NCR, said that this is best appreciated in the fact that several component cities are exceeding the 70% 鈥淒anger鈥� occupancy limit that DOH set. This limit, measured by the occupancy of COVID-19 beds, is now exceeded by 11 cities and municipalities of NCR, namely Makati, Las Pi帽as, Quezon City, Valenzuela, Pateros, Manila, Mandaluyong, Malabon, Navotas, Taguig, and Muntinlupa.

Underscoring the need for contact tracing, tracking, and isolation, Austriaco and Egwolf recommended the stricter enforcement by the DOH of public health reporting policies to 鈥渓ower the number of 鈥榰nknown鈥� positive cases that lack a geographical identifier.鈥� For areas that have reported cases, the timely enactment of lockdowns is crucial, an effort that 鈥渢he national government [must] properly supervise.鈥� If targeted lockdowns are not enforce properly, a return to ECQ or MECQ is not unlikely for NCR, the scientists warned.

Balancing the concerns of public health safety and economics, Austriaco and Egwolf reiterated their call for zoned and targeted lockdowns, especially with the rise in cases among younger working adults. Such targeted lockdowns must last for a minimum of two weeks 鈥渢o allow asymptomatic carriers to become non-infectious.鈥�

Finally, given the acceleration of cases in NCR, Austriaco and Egwolf warned against the movement of locally stranded individuals and returning OFWs from NCR to the provinces 鈥渦ntil the current surge in the pandemic has been brought under control.鈥� For provinces accepting LSIs and returning OFWs, the scientists recommended a non-negotiable 14-day quarantine regardless of the individual鈥檚 testing results from NCR. These are recommended to avoid overwhelming the health care systems in provinces.

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Adapting the DELPHI model from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Egwolf and Austriaco studied available data on the National Capital Region from the Department of Health鈥檚 issuances and offered the following observations:

ECQ helped cushion COVID-19 impact on NCR

The Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) 鈥渁ppears to have limited the impact of the pandemic in Metro Manila by significantly lowering the total number of COVID-19 cases and the total number of deaths.鈥� Comparing Metro Manila and New York City, which implemented lockdowns five days apart, the Metro Manila lockdown can be considered more effective in terms of saving thousands of lives, with 621 total deaths in NCR compared to the 16,232 deaths in New York City.

Flattening the first curve?

While the curve seems to be flattening with the gradual decline of cases from the peak in early May, the ECQ is still 鈥渟truggling to suppress the pandemic, i.e., to drive the number of infected cases down to zero. At this rate, the model predicts that the total number of cases in Metro Manila will continue to increase gradually and will not plateau for many months, though the forecasted number of active cases will also be decreasing.鈥� Should ECQ be maintained, Egwolf and Austriaco predicted, the number of active COVID-19 cases 鈥渨ill not fall below 1,000 cases until early September 2020.鈥�

Comparing NCR cities

The study also found that Makati, Mandaluyong, and Para帽aque have been more successful in suppressing the community spread of COVID-19 than Manila and Quezon City. 鈥淚t is not clear why the ECQ has not been as effective in both the City of Manila and Quezon City as it has been in their neighboring municipalities.鈥� The two researchers suggested increased efforts in these two cities by public health authorities.

What happens if we shift to GCQ?

Should GCQ be implemented on June 1, the forecasted numbers of infected cases and deaths in NCR may increase, but this can be 鈥渙ffset with a rigorous tracking, testing, and tracing program that seeks to limit community spread by breaking chains of viral transmission.鈥� Egwolf and Austriaco recommend that 鈥渢hat tracking, testing, and tracing programs in Metro Manila focus their efforts on limiting the impact of superspreading events (SSEs) which are associated with both explosive growth early in an outbreak and sustained transmission in later stages.鈥�

How much do we test and trace?

On the issues of testing and tracing, Egwolf and Austriaco cited the work of Harvard University scholars in proposing the ratio of tests and contact tracing per COVID-19 death per day. With the May 22, 2020 seven-day running average of six COVID-19 deaths in NCR per day, the NCR will need a testing capacity of 15,000 tests per day, complemented by 1,800 contact tracers working in call centers. These combined efforts will help curb the pandemic, and the capacities must respond to the severity of the pandemic in each area.

On the issue of testing, the researchers propose the adoption of mobile COVID-19 testing facilities, such as the one being developed by the UST College of Science and Faculty of Engineering, which may help increase the number of tests conducted in the different LGUs.

The figures and explanations of the study can be accessed via this . Meanwhile, the full paper, entitled 鈥淢obility-Guided Modeling of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Metro Manila,鈥� is currently under review for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

Egwolf is a researcher of the Research Center for Natural and Applied Sciences and teaches Physics in the College of Science. Meanwhile, Austriaco is a fellow of the Center for Religious Studies and Ethics. He is also a Professor of Biology and of Theology at Providence College, Rhode Island.

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Gathering over 100 attendees from different academic, government, and industry sectors, the second symposium updating the participants on the advances in polymers; materials science; nanotechnology; green, computational, medicinal, synthetic, and organic chemistry; and opening up possibilities of engaging them in meaningful collaborations.

The symposium held both plenary and poster presentation sessions over the two days.

Delivering talks were:

1. Distinguished Prof. Jui-Ming Yeh, PhD (Synthesis, characterization, and applications of biomimetic coating materials)
2. Prof. Jose H. Bergantin, Jr., PhD (Bacteriophage-based Impedimetric Biosensors for聽Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium聽补苍诲听Aeromonas hydrophila)
3. (Molecular Docking of Ipalbidine into Human Cyclooxygenase-2 Crystal Structures)
4. Asst. Prof. Rafael Alfonso, MSc (Molecular Docking: How to fight diseases with your laptop)
5. Prof. Chung-Der Hsiao, PhD (Use Zebrafish as an聽in vivo聽model to study obesity, aging, and ecotoxicity)
6. (Metabolomic profile analyses in the study of oleaginous and carotenogenous thraustochytrids)
7. Prof. Yi-Ning Chen, PhD (Emerging disease viruses in the bat populations of Taiwan)
8. (Inhibitory activity of some natural spiro-indole alkaloids in HIV latently infected cell lines)
9. Assoc. Prof. Hsi-Wei Jia, PhD (NMR Investigation of Acetylacetone Tautomerization)
10. (Asymmetric dearomatization of furans for the enantioselective synthesis of enterolactone natural products)
11. Asst. Prof. Amily Fang-Ju Jou, PhD (Optical genosensor for cancer screening)
12. (Bioactive Venom Peptides from Philippine Tarantula Phlogiellus bundokalbo [Theraposidae])

Three scientific posters were likewise recognized during the event. The three best scientific posters were:

1st Place

Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) and Colorectal Cancer Development among Filipinos

by Ana Maria D. Cari帽o, Edrienne Myena M. Magat, Gregg Austine Balanag, Allan Felizar, Dr. Teresa Sy-Ortin, MD, , and .

This paper was a collaboration of people from UST鈥檚 , , , , and Hospital, as well as scientists from the Quirino State University and Mariano Marcos Memorial Hospital and Medical Center.

2nd Place

Discovery of novel SPIRODIOXYNAPHTHALENE derivatives with anti-microbial, nematicidal, and cytotoxic properties from Sparticola junci

by Katherine Yasmin M. Garcia, Charles David V. Pabillo, Chayanard Phukhamsakda, Kevin D. Hyde, Marc Stadler, and Prof. Allan Patrick G. Macabeo, Dr. rer. nat.

This transnational research was a collaboration among UST, Mae Fah Luyang University, and Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research 鈥� Braunschweig, Germany.

3rd Place

External Calibration vs Standard Addition Method in the Determination of Calcium in Drinking Water by ICP-OES for Proficiency Testing Studies

by Clarissa J. Gatchalian, Christian D. Laurio, Elyson Keith P. Encarnacion, and Benilda S. Ebarvia

The researchers represented the Department of Science and Technology鈥檚 Industrial Technology Development Institute.

The collaboration with CYCU began in 2010, when the first Memorandum of Understanding was first signed. Since then, CYCU has hosted UST鈥檚 Engineering, Physics, and Chemistry students for internship, as well as alumni and faculty for postgraduate studies.

A two-year joint project between Prof. Jui-Ming Yeh and was also finished in 2017, resulting in a number of international joint publications and theses topics of undergraduate and graduate students.

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